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IMPACT Webinar

Unlocking the $100 Billion SAF Market

Format: Digital Conference

[IMPACT Webinar]: Unlocking the $100 Billion SAF Market

Date and Time: 14:00 - 15:30 London Time | May 21st Wednesday

Abstract:

The sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market is projected to reach a staggering $131.12 billion by 2033, marking a remarkable 100-fold increase from its current value of $1.29 billion in 2023. This exponential growth underscores the industry's rapid evolution and the escalating demand for sustainable solutions. The question is no longer "Should I invest?" but rather, "When and how should I invest?"

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The rapid expansion of SAF highlights vast potential for technological innovations, the circular economy, and job growth across various sectors. Waste-to-fuel and eSAF are no longer distant aspirations; they are immediate opportunities for global economy growth.

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While challenges coexist with these opportunities, this webinar will provide a clear roadmap for navigating the SAF market. Key topics will include the anticipated under-supplied SAF market, ongoing tensions between policy implementation and practical adoption, and the strategic ways for cleaner and cheaper pathways.

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Join us and forge valuable insights into how to capitalize on this transformative market!

Agenda:

0:02:17 [Keynote] Cultivating the Green Sky Future: Opportunities and Challenges
Guillermo Felipe Rebollo de Garay, Legal and Policy Officer, Directorate-General for Mobility and Transport (DG MOVE), European Commission

0:20:50 [Keynote] Catalyzing Innovation: Finding Safe, Affordable, and Sustainable Fuels for Faster Takeoff
Ana Purnell Marqués, UK Sustainability Lead, Boeing 


0:43:50 [Q&A Panel Discussion] Seizing the Generational Potential: Strategic Investment in the Sustainable Aviation
Cindi Bough, Managing Director, Climate Investment
Roberto Gonzalez Llamazares, Principal, EBRD
Lili Juhasz-Deal, Commercial Sustainability Manager, Air France-KLM

Key Takeaways:

1. Guillermo Felipe Rebollo de Garay, Legal and Policy Officer, Directorate-General for Mobility and Transport (DG MOVE), European Commission, provided a comprehensive overview of the European Union's strategic approach to sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), underscoring the aviation sector's vital role in both economic activity and climate transition. He emphasized that the EU’s SAF policy is built on stability, predictability, and clarity, essential for fostering investor confidence and long-term planning. A central focus of his keynote was the SAF blending mandate, which starts at 2% in 2025 and progressively increases to 70% by 2050, including specific targets for synthetic fuels (eSAF). He acknowledged the significant challenges facing synthetic fuel development, citing market failures due to high capital costs and a lack of long-term offtake agreements. To address this, the Commission is developing a Sustainable Transport Investment Plan aimed at de-risking early investments and incentivizing first movers. Libero de Gare concluded by reaffirming the EU’s unwavering commitment to SAF targets, framing them as crucial not only for emissions reductions but also for energy security, industrial growth, and job creation.

2. Ana Purnell-Marcus, UK Sustainability Lead, Boeing, highlighted Boeing’s strategic commitment to aviation decarbonization, positioning SAF as the most viable near-term solution to reduce emissions across all flight segments, particularly medium- and long-haul. She outlined Boeing’s five-pronged approach to sustainability: fleet renewal, operational efficiency, renewable energy, advanced technology, and carbon removals. Boeing aims to ensure that all its aircraft are compatible with 100% SAF by 2030 and has already completed several 100% SAF demonstration flights in collaboration with partners like Virgin Atlantic and Rolls-Royce. Ana stressed the importance of regional engagement, noting Boeing’s support for local SAF production through technology partnerships, feedstock mapping, and financial facilitation. She emphasized Boeing’s role as a convener—bridging gaps between aviation, policy, energy, and finance stakeholders. Additionally, she introduced Boeing’s Cascade modeling tool, designed to help industry players explore and optimize decarbonization pathways. Ana’s message was clear: while Boeing is not a fuel producer, it is committed to leading and enabling the scale-up of SAF globally.

3. For the Panel Discussion, here are the key questions:

  • The regulatory SAF market is driven by legal mandates like the EU’s RefuelEU, which provides long-term certainty for investment and planning.

  • The voluntary SAF market is fueled by corporate sustainability commitments and individual consumer demand, particularly from environmentally conscious travelers.

  • Corporate clients are increasingly participating in voluntary SAF programs to meet Scope 3 emissions targets and demonstrate climate leadership.

  • SAF adoption is hindered by high costs, limited feedstock availability, and underdeveloped supply chains, especially for next-generation fuels.

  • Generation 2 SAF (e.g., HEFA) is more mature but constrained by feedstock limitations, while Generation 3 (e-fuels) offers long-term promise but is not yet cost-competitive.

  • Airlines operate on tight margins, making the high cost of SAF a major barrier to large-scale adoption without significant policy support or incentives.

  • A sustainable business model for SAF is still emerging, with the need for improved cost parity, de-risking mechanisms, and public-private collaboration.

  • Investment and scale-up of SAF infrastructure require coordinated efforts across technology development, regulatory clarity, and innovative financing.

  • Collaboration across the aviation, policy, finance, and energy sectors is essential to overcome current SAF market challenges and accelerate deployment.

Insights brought to you by:

Guillermo Felipe Rebollo de Garay

​Legal and Policy Officer, Directorate-General for Mobility and Transport (DG MOVE)

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European Commission​​

Lili Juhasz-Deal

Commercial Sustainability Manager

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Air France-KLM​​

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Cindi Bough 

Managing Director 

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Climate Investment​

Ana Purnell Marqués

 

UK Sustainability Lead

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Boeing â€‹â€‹

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Roberto Gonzalez Llamazares 

Principal 

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European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)​

Host

Will Shen

Content Producer

Leader Associates

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